Anglo North Dallas has stopped voting, which means anything is possible – and I mean anything, short of Jennifer Gale becoming mayor – in Saturday’s election. Don Hill becoming mayor without a runoff? Why not? Edward Okpa or John Cappello finishing second and making a runoff? Sure.
How else to explain what looks to be one of the smallest turnouts in a contested city election (based on early voting numbers)? If I did the math correctly, about 25,000 city voters cast ballots in the early period. Given past elections, early turnout is around one-third of the total, which gives us 75,000. And even that number may be optimistic, since heavy turnout for Farmers Branch’s immigrant referendum may have skewed the early voting numbers. (Note to Freedom fries fans: Turnout was 85 percent in France’s presidential election last week.)
How big a fall off is this? In 1995, when Ron Kirk was elected mayor for the first time, 114,000 voted and three North Dallas council districts were the only ones with turnout of more than 25 ½ percent. In fact, turnout as a percentage was one-sixth higher in North Dallas’s District 13 than it was in the predominantly black District 5. Skip ahead to the first strong mayor referendum in May 2005, when North Dallas’ turnout dropped to less than 18 percent. (I had software compatibility problems with the county’s statistics for last fall’s general election, so I can’t offer the same sort of comparison. But the general numbers I had support the overall trend).
Why has North Dallas stopped voting? The county GOP is wringing its hands over this question, since that’s the reason why we have a Democratic district attorney, county judge and courthouse. It’s not that we have more black and brown voters or that they’re voting more often. Rather, the people who live north of Northwest Highway don’t vote any more. I still expect two white establishment males to make the runoff on Saturday, but. …
Can you say Mayor Don Hill, North Dallas ?
