So far, most of the guesses surrounding the mayor’s race have been just that — educated guesses from those of us who are paying attention. (Which probably isn’t that much more educated than a guess from someone who isn’t paying attention.)
Hence my attempt to offer some numbers to make sense out what is going to happen on May 12. The following assumes that turnout is around 100,000 voters. In 2003, when Her Mayorness beat Mary Poss, turnout was 94,444. In 2005, when there wasn’t a mayor’s race but several very contested council seats, it was 107,136. Also, to make the runoff, at least one of the 10 candidates will need 20 percent or 20,000 votes. Therefore, consider the following:
— The power of South Dallas. In 2005, there were almost 50,000 votes cast in council races south of the Trinity. In 2003, turnout was half of that. Everyone who assumes that Don Hill will make the runoff figures on a 2005-style turnout. Those of us who are more skeptical point to 2003.
— The power of North Dallas. If every person in South Dallas who isn’t white votes for Don Hill, it still may not matter. In 2003, North Dallas outvoted South Dallas by more than two to one. Can we say two middle-aged, Anglo men in the runoff?
— Don’t necessarily believe what you hear about voter bases. Someone wrote that Gary Griffith is much beloved in Lakewood. This may or may not be true, but he has never received more than 7,000 votes. The same goes for Oak Cliff’s Ed Oakley, who has averaged 7,000 votes in two elections. That still leaves each well short of 20,000. Where will the rest come from?
— Tom Leppert’s south of the Trinity strategy. Far be it from me to criticize a white businessman for going after minority votes, but given the turnout numbers, it doesn’t seem to make much sense. Assuming Oakley gets the 7,000 South Dallas votes that Hill doesn’t, what does that leave for Leppert?
It’s still much too early to know who will make the runoff. Much depends on any breaking news, like the FBI’s never-ending City Hall investigation. Much depends on whether any candidate makes a horrible faux pas. And much depends on who makes the biggest impression with their TV ads. But if I had to guess now, I’d say we will have two white businessmen in the runoff, with Hill third. But no one is going to force me to guess.
